OIN — Project Intelligence Dossier

SEC. 01

Valuation Assessment

Current Fair Value — IP + Infrastructure + Data

$250K – $500K

IP + proprietary data assets + live infrastructure + domain knowledge. Replacement cost (COCOMO II, AI-assisted): $2.3M at Brazil rates.

With Proven P&L (6 Months)

$1M – $3M

Demonstrated trading alpha on real capital validates the edge.

SaaS Revenue ($500K ARR)

$5M – $12M

200+ subscribers at $99-499/mo or enterprise contracts.

Acqui-hire Target

$2M – $5M

Trading firm or intelligence company buys system + operator.

Scaled Platform ($2M+ ARR)

$15M – $25M

Enterprise + retail, multiple product lines, proven retention.

SEC. 02

System Architecture

49

Collectors

38 active data sources. ACLED, GDELT, Polymarket, Telegram, FIRMS/NASA, Forex, CoinGecko, nuclear seismic, and 21 more.

87

Processors

52K LOC of analysis. Convergence engine, anomaly detection, instability scoring, Kelly sizing, portfolio allocation.

5

ML Models

Structural risk (AUC 0.94), event acceleration, Dixon-Coles football, NBA predictor, E12 classifier.

15

Containers

Pipeline, arena, watcher, dashboard, Postgres, Redis, Nginx, n8n, Qdrant, Grafana, Prometheus + exporters.

51

Cron Jobs

Automated pipeline, arena cycles, whale monitoring, health checks, self-healing, n8n triggers.

118

Oracle Wallets

Bayesian-adjusted win rates. E12 strategy filtering. Best: Mined-GeoGod (100% WR, $223K PnL).

20K

RAG Vectors

Qdrant embeddings of enriched trade history. 3-tier search: text → filter → fallback. Evidence-based decisions.

8

Safety Layers

Kill switch, drawdown limit, daily cap, 3-loss pause, position cap, edge monitor, risk manager, trade auditor.

14

Dashboards

Live trading, arena, signals, intelligence, whales, markets, insiders, analytics. Bloomberg-grade aesthetics.

SEC. 03

Monetizable Products

# Product Time to Revenue Monthly Rev Pricing

1

Signal Telegram Channel

Real-time geopolitical signals + PM trading recs. Infrastructure exists.

2-4 wks Launch

$1-5K Monthly

$99/mo Retail

2

PM Whale Tracker SaaS

118 oracle wallets + E12 alerts + Bayesian win rates. 10x deeper than PolyTrack.

4-6 wks Launch

$5-20K Monthly

$49-199 Tiers

3

CLV Sports Betting Signals

Closing Line Value detector. +20% ROI proven on 40K matches, 12 leagues.

6-8 wks Launch

$10-50K Monthly

$199/mo Pro

4

Convergence Engine (Open Core)

Multi-source intelligence convergence library. No open-source equivalent.

8-12 wks Launch

$2-10K Monthly

Cloud API Model

5

Geopolitical Risk API

Instability scores, convergence signals, anomaly alerts. Enterprise-grade.

3-4 mo Launch

$20-100K Monthly

$2-10K Enterprise

SEC. 04

Market Comparables

Company	Domain	Revenue	Valuation	OIN Edge
Recorded Future	Threat intelligence	$300M ARR	$2.65B (acquired)	OIN adds prediction market trading layer
Seerist	Geo-political forecasting	$14M	~$50-100M est.	127 employees vs 1. OIN has more sources + ML
Dataminr	Real-time event detection	$200M ARR	$4.1B	OIN has trading execution, Dataminr doesn't
Eurasia Group	Risk consultancy	$33M	Private	OIN automates what 100+ analysts do
PredictEngine	PM bot SaaS	~$1-5M est.	~$10-50M est.	OIN is 60x deeper (205K vs ~3K LOC)
World Monitor	OSINT dashboard	$0 (OSS)	41K GitHub stars	Dashboard only — no ML, no trading, no analysis

SEC. 05

Next Milestones

LIVE Trading Validation

$200 capital deployed. Targeting 50 completed trades over 4 weeks to validate E12 strategy out-of-sample.

LLM Probability Estimation

Adding independent Claude + Gemini probability scoring per market. Validates oracle signals before execution.

Signal Subscription (Telegram)

Fastest path to revenue. Infrastructure exists. Target: 50 subscribers at $99/mo within 8 weeks.

Whale Tracker SaaS

118 oracle wallets with Bayesian win rates. Product differentiation vs PolyTrack ($10/mo, ~20 wallets).

Sports CLV Expansion

Closing Line Value detector proven +20% ROI on 40K matches. Massive addressable market ($200B+ global).

Scale Capital

After validation: $2K → $10K → $50K capital deployment with proven edge and 8 safety layers.

SEC. 06

Spinoff Opportunities

A

Convergence Engine Library

Open-source pip package. Multi-source intelligence fusion with Dempster-Shafer. Potential: 5-20K GitHub stars.

B

Kelly Sizing Engine

Bayesian-adjusted Kelly Criterion for prediction markets and sports. Open source + consulting model.

C

CLV Sports Edge

Closing Line Value detector. +20% ROI on 40K matches. Massive market ($200B+ global sports betting).

D

Self-Healing Docker

Auto-monitoring + auto-restart framework. 15 containers managed with 30-min health loops.

E

Anomaly Detection API

Welford online algorithm for any time-series. O(1) update, multi-tier thresholds. Microservice-ready.

F

Bot Arena Platform

Strategy backtesting + island-model evolution + walk-forward promotion. Nothing like it exists for PM.

SEC. 07

Development Timeline

09 Feb 2026

Project inception

First commit. Pipeline + 8 collectors.

Feb — Mar 2026

Intelligence stack built

29 collectors, convergence engine, anomaly detection, signal classification, 3-layer storage.

12 Mar 2026

Arena + Gene Lab created

Bot evolution system with island model, novelty search, walk-forward promotion.

25 Mar 2026

VPS deployed

15 Docker containers, Hetzner CPX42, 51 cron jobs, oracleintel.io live.

28 Mar 2026

State-of-art upgrade

RAG advisor (20K vectors), LLM scorer, feedback engine, portfolio allocator, 8 protection layers.

29 Mar 2026

LIVE trading activated

$200 USDC deployed. E12 strategy. 7 active positions. Real money at risk.

SEC. 08

The Unique Position

Intelligence

29 sources, convergence, ML models

Recorded Future
Dataminr
Seerist

Analysis

51 processors, anomaly detection, entity graphs

Palantir
Eurasia Group
Verisk

Execution

E12, Kelly sizing, live trading, arena

Polymarket bots
PredictEngine
PolyTrack

OIN = Intelligence + Analysis + Execution

No existing product combines all three layers. This intersection is unoccupied.

Oracle IntelligenceNetwork