Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (850 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 50% (Vol: 45,003 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,080 contracts).


Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?


Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?


Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner


Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 22% (Vol: $21,061,866)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 48% (Vol: $1,650,635)


Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner


Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (14 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 22% (Vol: $21,113,190)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 48% (Vol: $1,685,659)


Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 50% (Vol: 45,003 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 22% (Vol: $21,184,860)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 48% (Vol: $1,721,905)


Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?


will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the june 2026 meeting?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 24% (Vol: $21,249,012)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 48% (Vol: $1,726,985)


Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)


Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner


LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner


Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage


Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?


Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?


Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?


US real GDP growth in 2028?: 1.6% to 2.0%


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 20% (Vol: $21,436,802)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 46% (Vol: $1,779,393)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,457,228)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 44% (Vol: $1,781,682)


Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 19% (Vol: $21,459,859)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 44% (Vol: $1,785,820)


Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?


Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?


Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?


will éric zemmour win the 2027 french presidential election?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (14 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10?


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (851 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10?


US real GDP growth in 2028?: 2.6% to 3.0%


SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?


US real GDP growth in 2028?: 2.1% to 2.5%


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,552,849)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 46% (Vol: $1,820,226)


Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 50% (Vol: 45,003 contracts).


Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?


Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?


Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?


Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (851 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders).


Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?


Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?


US real GDP growth in 2030?: 0.0% or Below


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (15 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders).


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (15 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 8% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders).


Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (15 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (851 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders).


US real GDP growth in 2029?: 4.6% to 5.0%


US real GDP growth in 2029?: 5.1% to 5.5%


US real GDP growth in 2029?: 2.1% to 2.5%


Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries


Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,014 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,084 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $21,666,379)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 42% (Vol: $1,880,017)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $21,680,271)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 42% (Vol: $1,883,718)


Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?


Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET


Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (101 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,084 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,016 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,896,719)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 39% (Vol: $1,961,404)


Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?


Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (101 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,016 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,084 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,918,937)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 38% (Vol: $1,969,835)


Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?


Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?


Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?


Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?


Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,919,052)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 38% (Vol: $1,970,581)


Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?


US real GDP growth in 2030?: 2.6% to 3.0%


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,016 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,957,050)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $1,980,486)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $21,958,626)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $1,984,155)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,066,155)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $1,992,610)


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 11% (101 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,081,815)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $1,999,777)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,082,332)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $2,001,769)


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders).


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (851 forecasters, CP hidden).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,097,331)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 37% (Vol: $2,007,983)


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,018 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,132 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 14% (Vol: $22,667,750)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 32% (Vol: $2,061,746)


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030? (698 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027? (136 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 11% (101 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,132 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,018 contracts).


Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?


Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (16 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders).


us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 15?


us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 12?


will portugal win the 2026 fifa world cup?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (16 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,866,760)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $2,145,565)


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (10 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? (28 forecasters, CP.


Manifold: Will Ukraine join NATO before Putin loses power in Russia? — 9% (22 traders). Manifold: [Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? — 9% (17 traders). Metaculus: Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? (158 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,028 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,914,263)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $2,148,054)


Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?


Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $22,914,422)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $2,148,182)


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,028 contracts).


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? (28 forecasters, CP. Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (10 forecasters, CP hidden).


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (17 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders).


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?


Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner


Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET


Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,028 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10?


Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Manifold: [Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? — 9% (17 traders). Metaculus: Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? (158 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035? (59 forecasters, CP hidden).


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 4% (15 traders). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (10 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?


Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?


Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $23,205,417)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 34% (Vol: $2,217,910)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $23,235,368)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 34% (Vol: $2,218,757)


Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $23,244,223)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 34% (Vol: $2,221,971)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $23,250,432)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 34% (Vol: $2,222,458)


Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (83 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 16% (Vol: $23,265,355)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 34% (Vol: $2,223,666)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 18% (Vol: $23,325,550)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 36% (Vol: $2,234,992)


Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11?


Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will Oceania win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,031 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts).


will germany win the 2026 fifa world cup?


will england win the 2026 fifa world cup?


US real GDP growth in 2028?: 6.1% or Above


Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?


Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $249,375 on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $+125 / +5%). World Bank: South Korea GDP Growth (%) = 2.0% (+0.0pp change) (2024). V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — South Korea (KR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.836. Liberal democracy 0.73. Political corruption 0.15.


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 10% (84 traders).


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? (28 forecasters, CP. Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (10 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders).


Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (17 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (177 forecasters, CP.


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 6% (73 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027? (136 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027? (280 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12?


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders).


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,084 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 36% (Vol: $25,104,134)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 76% (UP 4%) (Vol: $2,748,771)


Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET


Metaculus: Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? (67 forecasters, CP hidden). V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — North Korea (KP): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.013. Liberal democracy 0.01. Political corruption 0.95. Manifold: Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? — 14% (32 traders).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Ukraine (UA): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.420. Liberal democracy 0.35. Political corruption 0.61 (0=clean. Metaculus: If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term? (143. Metaculus: Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013? (111 forecasters, CP hidden).


Manifold: Will North Korea control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2031? — 14% (28 traders). Manifold: If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed? — 95% (22 traders). Manifold: Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? — 14% (32 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,147 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 34% (Vol: $25,145,058)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 74% (Vol: $2,792,005)


Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?


will netherlands win the 2026 fifa world cup?


will switzerland win the 2026 fifa world cup?


will belgium win the 2026 fifa world cup?


will morocco win the 2026 fifa world cup?


Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,149 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?


US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?


Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?


Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?


Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?


Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?


Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,149 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,084 contracts).


Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $248,875 on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $-375 / -15%). World Bank: South Korea GDP Growth (%) = 2.0% (+0.0pp change) (2024). V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — South Korea (KR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.836. Liberal democracy 0.73. Political corruption 0.15.


Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?


Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?


Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (17 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders).


LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner


Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner


Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner


SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?


LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner


Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?


Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (17 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? — 15% (578 traders).


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? — 15% (578 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,084 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,149 contracts).


Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?


LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 38% (Vol: $25,839,427)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 71% (Vol: $2,893,526)


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?


LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI


Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,088 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,150 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 33% (Vol: $26,010,939)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 63% (Vol: $2,955,127)


US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?


US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?


Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 38% (Vol: $26,181,019)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 66% (Vol: $3,000,275)


Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12?


Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12?


Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12?


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? (28 forecasters, CP. Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (11 forecasters, CP hidden).


will the price of bitcoin be above $66,000 on june 12?


spacex ipo closing market cap above $4t?


will czechia win the 2026 fifa world cup?


Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner


Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12?


Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner


Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?


Will OG Anunoby Jr. be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?


Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?


Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030? (699 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027? (136 forecasters, CP hidden).


Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner


Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)


LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


spacex ipo closing market cap above $2.6t?


counter-strike: team falcons vs betboom team - map 2 winner


lol: eintracht spandau vs anubis gaming - game 2 winner


map handicap: ts (-1.5) vs aurora gaming (+1.5)


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 4% (15 traders). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (11 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13?


Manifold: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? — 15% (578 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (101 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Manifold: If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed? — 95% (22 traders). Manifold: Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? — 14% (32 traders). Manifold: Will North Korea control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2031? — 14% (28 traders).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 48% (Vol: 45,088 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 52% (Vol: 14,150 contracts).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030? (699 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029? (96 forecasters, CP hidden).


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?


Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner


Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (18 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? — 15% (578 traders).


Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?


Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)


Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET


Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET


Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?


Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?


US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (18 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (852 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders).


Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 42% (Vol: $27,080,035)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 70% (Vol: $3,115,456)


Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? — 15% (578 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?


Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?


Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?


Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?


LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner


us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 13?


SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (18 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner


Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?


Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?


Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Manifold: Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? — 14% (32 traders). Manifold: Will North Korea control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2031? — 14% (28 traders). Manifold: If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed? — 95% (22 traders).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,383 contracts).


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (19 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12?


US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?


Will Trump recognize Taiwan?: Before Jan 20, 2029


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,383 contracts).


Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET


Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?


Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13?


Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029


Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?


Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?


Will Gabriel Bonfim be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?


Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (20 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?


Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 9% (102 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,447 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 48% (Vol: $28,375,601)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 78% (Vol: $3,387,168)


Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?


Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner


LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner


Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?


LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,484 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 52% (Vol: $28,513,468)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 79% (Vol: $3,398,255)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 50% (Vol: $28,626,307)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 78% (Vol: $3,410,748)


LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 13?


lol: team liquid vs cloud9 - game 3 winner


counter-strike: spirit vs 9z (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3


us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 14


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 48% (Vol: $28,653,342)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 78% (Vol: $3,416,393)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 48% (Vol: $28,675,568)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 79% (Vol: $3,437,623)


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (21 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 50% (Vol: $28,706,847)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 85% (Vol: $3,453,254)


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 48% (Vol: $28,720,605)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 80% (DOWN 5%) (Vol: $3,459,340)


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,484 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts).


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (177 forecasters, CP.


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (22 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 9% (102 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,484 contracts).


LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 46% (Vol: $29,197,001)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 78% (Vol: $3,565,177)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 40% (Vol: $29,320,091)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 74% (Vol: $3,577,672)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 38% (Vol: $29,418,425)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 69% (DOWN 5%) (Vol: $3,612,677)


Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 69% (Vol: $3,612,677)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 36% (Vol: $29,516,653)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 67% (Vol: $3,633,300)


Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (23 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 38% (Vol: $29,637,862)


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 70% (UP 3%) (Vol: $3,643,239)


Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14?


counter-strike: mouz vs fut esports (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3


will the price of bitcoin be above $62,000 on june 14?


counter-strike: themongolz vs monte (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3


will the price of bitcoin be above $66,000 on june 14?


us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 14


Polymarket: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — YES at 70% (Vol: $3,643,239)


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,506 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts).


Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,506 contracts).


Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?


Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?


Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner


Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?


will croatia win the 2026 fifa world cup?


counter-strike: betboom team vs vitality (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3


Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5


Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?


Metaculus: Will Israel conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027? (201 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026? — 8% (43 traders). Manifold: Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? — 7% (40 traders).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15?


US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?


Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


will rafael leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 fifa world cup?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (23 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?


Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $271,287 on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $-137 / -5%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $248,875 on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $-375 / -15%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $109,065 on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $+275 / +25%).


Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?


Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?


Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,577 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,401 contracts).


UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET


Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?


UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)


ufc freedom 250: justin gaethje vs. ilia topuria (lightweight, main card)


Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,405 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,577 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,577 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,405 contracts).


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?


Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $271,562 on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $+137 / +5%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $248,875 on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $-375 / -15%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $109,065 on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $+275 / +25%).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,405 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,577 contracts).


us and iran sign an agreement by june 15, 2026?


Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 2% (44 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?


Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner


will sweden win the 2026 fifa world cup?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 3% (44 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,694 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,414 contracts).


Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 3% (44 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,705 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts).


Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?


Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?


Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?


Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3


will ecuador win the 2026 fifa world cup?


counter-strike: natus vincere vs g2 (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,705 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 95% (Vol: $36,013,501)


What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?: Canada


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,705 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts).


Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 96% (Vol: $36,042,841)


Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 97% (Vol: $36,109,306)


Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 98% (Vol: $36,270,307)


Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 99% (Vol: $36,446,665)


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,705 contracts).


Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?


Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?


Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (23 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (853 forecasters, CP hidden).


will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30?


Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $271,562 on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $+137 / +5%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $249,125 on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $-125 / -5%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $109,065 on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $+275 / +25%).


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 98% (Vol: $36,755,242)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 98% (Vol: $36,811,721)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 98% (Vol: $36,841,273)


Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 3% (45 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: No new person — YES at 48% (Vol: 7,673 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Do Kwon — YES at 22% (Vol: 1,139 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Ty Garbin — YES at 11% (Vol: 5,783 contracts).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16?


Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $271,012 on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $-412 / -15%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $249,125 on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $-125 / -5%). Whale position: Serene-Decision holds $109,065 on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' (No at 99%, avg entry 99%, PnL: $+275 / +25%).


Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?


Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?


Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?


Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (23 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (853 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — China (CN): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.050. Liberal democracy 0.03. Political corruption 0.75 (0=clean. Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (178 forecasters, CP. Metaculus: If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? (1948 forecasters, CP hidden).


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (24 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 2% (45 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — North Korea (KP): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.013. Liberal democracy 0.01. Political corruption 0.95. Manifold: If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed? — 95% (22 traders). Manifold: Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? — 14% (32 traders).


Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?


Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (24 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (853 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders).


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (24 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Metaculus: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? (853 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?


Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?


Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?


Kalshi: Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: No new person — YES at 48% (Vol: 7,692 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Do Kwon — YES at 22% (Vol: 1,139 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Ty Garbin — YES at 11% (Vol: 5,783 contracts).


Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17?


Manifold: If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed? — 95% (22 traders). Metaculus: Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? (67 forecasters, CP hidden). V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — North Korea (KP): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.013. Liberal democracy 0.01. Political corruption 0.95.


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?


Whale trade: $14,967 BUY on 'Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?' outcome 'No' at 87% (wallet: Powerful-Election, 55% win rate). Whale trade: $22,370 BUY on 'Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?' outcome 'No' at 95% (wallet: Powerful-Election, 55% win rate). World Bank: Lebanon GDP Growth (%) = -0.8% (+0.0pp change) (2023).


Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,954 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts).


Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


will the price of bitcoin be above $60,000 on june 17?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $39,235,419)


Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?


Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 45,954 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts).


Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?


Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $39,343,555)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $39,456,233)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $40,335,219)


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 1% (45 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (25 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $42,851,425)


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,051 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts).


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $42,886,471)


Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?


Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31, 2026?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $43,082,007)


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $43,537,680)


Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?


Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $43,720,108)


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,051 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $45,740,471)


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17?


will senegal win the 2026 fifa world cup?


will the text of the us-iran agreement be released by june 16?


israel withdraws from lebanon by june 30, 2026?


will norway win the 2026 fifa world cup?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $46,198,701)


Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 10% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 1% (45 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 14% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,051 contracts).


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 4% (15 traders). Manifold: Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? — 40% (37 traders) [UP 8%]. Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders).


Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?


Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $46,457,915)


Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?


Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,051 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,428 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,051 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders). Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders).


Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?


Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?


Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?


will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the june 2026 meeting?


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Ukraine (UA): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.420. Liberal democracy 0.35. Political corruption 0.61 (0=clean. Metaculus: If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term? (143. Metaculus: Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers? (137 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?


Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?


Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?


Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders). Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


will the fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the july 2026 meeting?


will there be no change in fed interest rates after the july 2026 meeting?


Metaculus: Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026? (72 forecasters, CP hidden). MARITIME MONITOR: Strait of Hormuz — 0 vessels detected (15s window), baseline: 50. Whale trade: $20,956 BUY on 'Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?' outcome 'No' at 91% (wallet: Cheerful-Ephemera, 84% win.


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?


Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES at 100% (Vol: $47,809,794)


Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (11 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders).


will the fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the july 2026 meeting?


will the price of bitcoin be above $70,000 on june 18?


will the price of bitcoin be above $58,000 on june 18?


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,051 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts).


strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15?


us obtains iranian enriched uranium by june 30?


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range before July 30, 2026? (11 forecasters, CP hidden).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,000 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts).


strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31?


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (25 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 7% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?


Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?


Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?


Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?


Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?


Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?


Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?


Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?


Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?


Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?


Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?


U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?


Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?


Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council  in 2026?


Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?


Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?


Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?


Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?


Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?


Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?


Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?


Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?


Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?


Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?


Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?


Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?


Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?


Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?


Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?


Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?


Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?


Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?


Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?


Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?


Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,000 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?


Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?


Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs


Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?


will south korea win the 2026 fifa world cup?


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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?


Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?


Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders). Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders).


Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?


Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?


Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19?


Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner


Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner


counter-strike: furia vs 9z - map 1 winner


counter-strike: furia vs 9z - map 2 winner


us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19, 2026?


baltimore orioles vs. seattle mariners: o/u 7.5


Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Will Maja Chwalinska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? (28 forecasters, CP.


Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,001 contracts).


will andy burnham win the 2026 makerfield by-election?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,001 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 0% (Vol: 8,745 contracts).


will bitcoin hit $150k by june 30, 2026?


us obtains iranian enriched uranium by december 31?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET


Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030? (697 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027? (136 forecasters, CP hidden).


Metaculus: Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026? (77 forecasters, CP hidden). Whale position: Single-Air holds $9,985 on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?' (No at 100%, avg entry 100%, PnL: $+25 / +25%). MARITIME MONITOR: Strait of Hormuz — 0 vessels detected (15s window), baseline: 50.


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?


Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders). Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?


Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?


Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?


Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders).


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 8% (Vol: 8,758 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,001 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts).


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Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (178 forecasters, CP. Metaculus: If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? (1948 forecasters, CP hidden).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030? (697 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029? (93 forecasters, CP hidden).


Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (178 forecasters, CP.


Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?


iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30?


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 8% (Vol: 8,758 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,001 contracts).


us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 30, 2026?


Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (178 forecasters, CP. Metaculus: If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? (1948 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years? (262 forecasters.


Metaculus: Will Ukraine conclude a peace treaty with the Russian Federation by the end of 2030? (40 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? (158 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035? (59 forecasters, CP hidden).


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Iran (IR): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.072. Liberal democracy 0.04. Political corruption 0.80 (0=clean. Metaculus: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030? (697 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027? (131 forecasters, CP hidden).


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders).


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 9% (102 traders). Manifold: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War — 1% (45 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 7% (Vol: 8,758 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,001 contracts).


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?


Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?


Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19?


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? (28 forecasters, CP. Manifold: Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? — 53% (37 traders) [UP 6%].


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (23 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (74 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders).


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner


Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (75 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders).


Manifold: Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026? — 40% (23 traders) [DOWN 4%]. Metaculus: Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029? (33 forecasters, CP hidden).


Metaculus: Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026? (23 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (75 traders). Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders).


Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?


Manifold: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026? — 9% (102 traders). Manifold: Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description) — 12% (28 traders). Manifold: Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 6% (27 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,010 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 5% (Vol: 8,758 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts).


United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs


Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?


Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 3% (Vol: 8,760 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,010 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts).


Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Metaculus: If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? (178 forecasters, CP.


Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20?


Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs


Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?


counter-strike: vitality vs team falcons (bo3) - iem cologne major playoffs


Metaculus: Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? (58 forecasters, CP hidden). Manifold: Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve? — 1% (23 traders). Manifold: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? — 3% (15 traders).


Manifold: Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? — 6% (102 traders). Manifold: Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026? — 9% (84 traders). Manifold: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026? — 5% (75 traders).


Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump Jr. — YES at 55% (Vol: 14,421 contracts). Kalshi: Which G7 leader will leave next?: Donald Trump — YES at 3% (Vol: 8,760 contracts). Kalshi: Who will Trump pardon?: Donald Trump — YES at 52% (Vol: 46,010 contracts).


iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31?


Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?


Metaculus: Will Ukraine conclude a peace treaty with the Russian Federation by the end of 2030? (40 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035? (59 forecasters, CP hidden). Metaculus: Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? (158 forecasters, CP hidden).


Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?


Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


will usa win group d in the 2026 fifa world cup?


will türkiye win group d in the 2026 fifa world cup?


metaculus: will the people's republic of china blockade or quarantine taiwan before september 1, 2026? (23 forecasters,


Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET


Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?


V-Dem structural assessment [2023] — Ukraine (UA): Electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.420. Liberal democracy 0.35. Political corruption 0.61 (0=clean. Metaculus: If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term? (140. Metaculus: Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013? (111 forecasters, CP hidden).


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs


Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner


v-dem structural assessment [2023] — china (cn): electoral democracy (polyarchy) 0.050. liberal democracy 0.03. politica


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner


Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner


kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24?


counter-strike: spirit vs team falcons - map 2 winner


counter-strike: spirit vs team falcons - map 1 winner


Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs


Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?


Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5