{
  "updated_utc": "2026-06-20T07:20:03.490379+00:00",
  "versioned_run_id": "run-20260620T072003Z-N329",
  "corpus_total_commits": 9743,
  "resolved_and_graded": 329,
  "directional_accuracy": 0.6474,
  "accuracy_wilson_lcb_95": 0.5944,
  "base_rate_majority": 0.5502,
  "skill_over_base_rate": 0.0972,
  "skill_significance": {
    "method": "one-sided exact binomial: P(correct >= observed | p = base_rate)",
    "n_correct": 213,
    "n_resolved": 329,
    "base_rate": 0.5502,
    "p_value": 0.0002,
    "significant_at_95": true,
    "ci_skill_over_base_includes_zero": false,
    "note": "Each graded call is joined to its REAL on-chain Polymarket condition_id (via condition_id_map.json, signal_id -> condition_id) and counted only when that market is genuinely settled on-chain (match_quality=confirmed, resolved=true, clean YES/NO outcome) and its resolution period has fully elapsed. Future-dated and unsettled markets are NOT graded \u2014 they cannot be a win or a loss yet. Aggregate directional accuracy is at/below the base rate and not statistically distinguishable from noise \u2014 we have no demonstrated directional edge. We sell cryptographically-provable provenance + the raw signal stream, NOT a directional edge."
  },
  "directional_guidance": "dir-acc 0.6474 (N=329 unique markets, on-chain CTF, deduped per-market; 95% LCB 0.5944). Not significantly above 55.0% base rate overall (p=0.0002, no demonstrated aggregate edge). YES 107/182 (LCB 0.5153) (no edge; concentrated in one source (whale_event_convergence, 55% of YES calls) \u2014 selection bias, not replicable). NO 106/147 (acc 0.7211, LCB 0.6437, p=0.0 vs base), Cohen's h=0.3575 small. NO result is statistically notable but concentrated in one source (whale_event_convergence, 69% of NO calls) and likely reflects market-selection bias toward events that resolve NO by base probability. Not a trading edge. OIN sells cryptographically-provable provenance + raw signal stream, NOT directional forecasts.",
  "stability_note": "Edge is not yet sample-stable: a few adverse resolutions move the YES-side LCB materially (e.g. 3 flips ~ -0.09). Figures are provisional; headline re-published at N>=100 graded.",
  "reevaluate_at_n_graded": 100,
  "grading_provenance": "Outcome labels are OIN-computed (proof_grader.py) by joining each sealed signal to its REAL on-chain Polymarket condition_id (condition_id_map.json: signal_id -> condition_id, match_quality=confirmed only). A call is graded ONLY when the Polygon ConditionalTokens contract (0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045) confirms resolution via payoutDenominator != 0 and payoutNumerators[0] (YES slot). cidmap.resolved is a pre-filter hint only \u2014 the on-chain contract is the authoritative gate. Future-dated / unsettled markets are excluded, never counted as wins. resolution_source='ctf_on_chain' = Bitcoin-grade certainty; there is NO off-chain fallback \u2014 if the RPC is unavailable a call stays UNGRADED (never a win). Each graded call carries resolution_contract (condition_id \u2014 look it up on Polymarket / on-chain) and outcome_price (1.0=YES won, 0.0=NO won). The hash-seal proves the PREDICTION existed before resolution; the condition_id lets you independently verify the OUTCOME.",
  "ctf_grading_meta": {
    "ctf_contract": "0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045",
    "ctf_yes_slot": 0,
    "rpc_url": "https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com",
    "rpc_available": true,
    "n_candidate_cids": 521,
    "n_cache_hits": 517,
    "n_verified_this_run": 4,
    "n_still_unresolved_onchain": 0,
    "n_rpc_budget_skipped": 0,
    "n_ctf_confirmed_total": 521,
    "resolution_source_breakdown": {
      "ctf_on_chain": 329
    },
    "n_raw_commits_graded": 373,
    "n_dup_commits_collapsed": 44,
    "n_unique_markets_graded": 329,
    "dedup_note": "n_unique_markets_graded is the headline N (one condition_id = one data point). n_dup_commits_collapsed = extra commits on the same market that were collapsed to the last call. directional_conflict=True in any recent_graded_sample entry means multiple commits disagreed on direction.",
    "source_concentration": {
      "YES": {
        "top_source": "whale_event_convergence",
        "fraction": 0.549
      },
      "NO": {
        "top_source": "whale_event_convergence",
        "fraction": 0.694
      },
      "note": "A side with top_source fraction > 0.50 has its accuracy dominated by one source's market-selection behaviour \u2014 not a broadly replicable signal. Edge is never claimed for a concentrated side."
    },
    "rpc_fail_alert": false,
    "rpc_fail_alert_note": "True when candidate condition_ids existed but 0 were graded via fresh on-chain CTF verification (RPC down or cache cold). Daily cron should alert on this flag. Does NOT mean the scorecard is wrong \u2014 cached results are still valid \u2014 but it means no fresh on-chain confirmation this run.",
    "honesty_note": "A market grades ONLY when payoutDenominator != 0 on Polygon for its condition_id. RPC unavailable = fail-closed (0 new-live grades, cached results still valid). None is never fabricated as a resolution."
  },
  "by_call_direction": {
    "YES": {
      "n": 182,
      "correct": 107,
      "accuracy": 0.5879,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.5153
    },
    "NO": {
      "n": 147,
      "correct": 106,
      "accuracy": 0.7211,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.6437
    }
  },
  "brier_proxy": 0.214,
  "brier_note": "entry_price used as forecast prob proxy; directional accuracy is the primary honest metric",
  "accuracy_vs_profitability_note": "Directional forecast accuracy is NOT trading profitability. Calls can be directionally right yet lose money at expensive entries (Polymarket 0/100 payoff). OIN's calibrated trade win-rate is published separately and is lower.",
  "per_source": [
    {
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed": 1031,
      "n": 202,
      "correct": 145,
      "accuracy": 0.7178,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.6521,
      "caveat": null
    },
    {
      "source": "kinetic_bridge",
      "committed": 133,
      "n": 47,
      "correct": 24,
      "accuracy": 0.5106,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.3724,
      "caveat": "accuracy does NOT significantly beat the 55% resolved base rate (one-sided binomial p>=0.05) \u2014 consistent with no edge, not a demonstrated per-source edge"
    },
    {
      "source": "orderbook_imbalance",
      "committed": 73,
      "n": 31,
      "correct": 21,
      "accuracy": 0.6774,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.5014,
      "caveat": "accuracy does NOT significantly beat the 55% resolved base rate (one-sided binomial p>=0.05) \u2014 consistent with no edge, not a demonstrated per-source edge"
    },
    {
      "source": "consensus_prob",
      "committed": 194,
      "n": 20,
      "correct": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.3,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.1455,
      "caveat": "accuracy does NOT significantly beat the 55% resolved base rate (one-sided binomial p>=0.05) \u2014 consistent with no edge, not a demonstrated per-source edge"
    },
    {
      "source": "consensus_signal",
      "committed": 63,
      "n": 15,
      "correct": 10,
      "accuracy": 0.6667,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.4171,
      "caveat": "small-N: 15 graded of 63 committed \u2014 not statistically distinguishable from chance"
    },
    {
      "source": "whale_consensus",
      "committed": 77,
      "n": 9,
      "correct": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.5556,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.2666,
      "caveat": "small-N: 9 graded of 77 committed \u2014 not statistically distinguishable from chance"
    },
    {
      "source": "oracle_brain",
      "committed": 9,
      "n": 2,
      "correct": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.0,
      "caveat": "small-N: 2 graded of 9 committed \u2014 not statistically distinguishable from chance"
    },
    {
      "source": "watcher_position",
      "committed": 28,
      "n": 1,
      "correct": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.0,
      "caveat": "small-N: 1 graded of 28 committed \u2014 not statistically distinguishable from chance"
    },
    {
      "source": "structural_edge",
      "committed": 124,
      "n": 1,
      "correct": 1,
      "accuracy": 1.0,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.2065,
      "caveat": "small-N: 1 graded of 124 committed \u2014 not statistically distinguishable from chance"
    },
    {
      "source": "cheap_yes_whale",
      "committed": 5,
      "n": 1,
      "correct": 1,
      "accuracy": 1.0,
      "wilson_lcb_95": 0.2065,
      "caveat": "small-N: 1 graded of 5 committed \u2014 not statistically distinguishable from chance"
    }
  ],
  "honesty_statement": "This scorecard is computed automatically over the public hash-sealed corpus. We publish our accuracy \u2014 including when it is poor \u2014 because a cryptographically-timestamped, self-graded record beats an unverifiable win-rate claim. Verify any commit at /app/proofs/verify.html.",
  "recent_graded_sample": [
    {
      "market": "Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs",
      "called": "YES",
      "resolved": "YES",
      "correct": true,
      "outcome_price": 1.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0xed76e3c271f4e24a3db2436cdf2c314cda43909fbc94c2bc34631a01cd67d3ae",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-19T20:30:02.905866+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 2,
      "directional_conflict": true,
      "conflict_calls": [
        "YES",
        "NO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "market": "Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner",
      "called": "YES",
      "resolved": "YES",
      "correct": true,
      "outcome_price": 1.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0xdd5aae2614a7b74b807fefeafd73604e339db350bce404ce4fd11f71e683e77b",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-19T17:30:03.326535+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 1,
      "directional_conflict": false
    },
    {
      "market": "Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?",
      "called": "NO",
      "resolved": "YES",
      "correct": false,
      "outcome_price": 1.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0xc90381f6021b8dc8d07dd3d783d3927f34706f8ce1ed097b21cc92f31b5be076",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-19T20:30:02.859612+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 1,
      "directional_conflict": false
    },
    {
      "market": "Will United States win on 2026-06-19?",
      "called": "YES",
      "resolved": "YES",
      "correct": true,
      "outcome_price": 1.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0x7ebb07134794576c154f06fbaa1cc61a5292d58e280ce98207977771c0326c27",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-19T20:30:02.915212+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 1,
      "directional_conflict": false
    },
    {
      "market": "Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?",
      "called": "NO",
      "resolved": "NO",
      "correct": true,
      "outcome_price": 0.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0xb1fca83dd9b3046c8db3ae0de2c8d56ee5d17d3aad54b7bbfa5c65000f6df350",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-19T21:30:02.952677+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 1,
      "directional_conflict": false
    },
    {
      "market": "Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs",
      "called": "NO",
      "resolved": "NO",
      "correct": true,
      "outcome_price": 0.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0x8b9176d24ac65c3ec55f5113c290b7ce97dc026dc506db9f1444879ffcdadd6d",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-20T00:00:02.010971+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 1,
      "directional_conflict": false
    },
    {
      "market": "will scotland win on 2026-06-19?",
      "called": "YES",
      "resolved": "NO",
      "correct": false,
      "outcome_price": 0.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0x5fac5a47f11802e8a7b82d76e05461bd4551fe199041fb45c5e6228c56532d4a",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "consensus_prob",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-20T01:00:02.928451+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 2,
      "directional_conflict": true,
      "conflict_calls": [
        "YES",
        "NO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "market": "Will T\u00fcrkiye win on 2026-06-19?",
      "called": "YES",
      "resolved": "NO",
      "correct": false,
      "outcome_price": 0.0,
      "resolution_contract": "0x7bed81b0bd1cbe7cae0ad49fcf2d9e068d1ea2da49a36e638712daa55712a184",
      "resolution_source": "ctf_on_chain",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "source": "whale_event_convergence",
      "committed_at": "2026-06-20T03:30:01.540555+00:00",
      "n_commits_this_market": 1,
      "directional_conflict": false
    }
  ]
}